Comet Prospects for 2007
2007 is a poor year and whilst it sees the possible return of 29 periodic comets only a few of these are likely to come within range of visual observation with moderate apertures. 8P/Tuttle may reach binocular brightness at the end of the year, though strictly it belongs with the comets of 2008.
Theories on the structure of comets suggest that any comet could fragment at any time, so it is worth keeping an eye on some of the fainter periodic comets, which are often ignored. This would make a useful project for CCD observers. As an example 51P/Harrington was observed to fragment in 2001. Ephemerides for new and currently observable comets are published in the Circulars, Comet Section Newsletters and on the Section, CBAT and Seiichi Yoshida's web pages. Complete ephemerides and magnitude parameters for all comets predicted to be brighter than about 21m are given in the International Comet Quarterly Handbook; details of subscription to the ICQ are available from the comet section Director. The updated section booklet on comet observing is available from the BAA Office or the Director.
2P/Encke puts on a brief showing in the UK evening sky in late March and early April just before perihelion, when it may be a binocular object in Pisces and Aries. After perihelion it will be visible passing through the SOHO LASCO field or that of its successor. This is comet Encke's 60th observed return to perihelion since its discovery by Mechain in 1786. The orbit is quite stable, and with a period of 3.3 years apparitions repeat on a 10-year cycle. This year the comet is briefly seen from the Northern Hemisphere prior to perihelion, with rather better views from the Southern Hemisphere after perihelion, when the comet is often brighter. BAA Members have been observing the comet for over 50 years and there is little evidence for a secular fading. The comet is the progenitor of the Taurid meteor complex and may be associated with several Apollo asteroids.
29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann is an annual comet that has outbursts, which in recent years seem to have become more frequent and were more or less continuous in 2004. At many recent outbursts it has reached 12m. It spends the first quarter of the year in Taurus before sinking into solar conjunction. It emerges into the morning sky of Auriga in August, reaching opposition there at the end of the year. The comet is an ideal target for those equipped with CCDs and it should be observed at every opportunity. It is again well placed this year and UK based observers should be able to follow it for much of the year.
96P/Machholz should reach 2nd magnitude as it passes through the SOHO LASCO coronagraph field at perihelion in early April, however it will be 9th magnitude by the time its elongation increases sufficiently for ground based observation in late April. UK observers may pick it up in the morning sky, but it will be a fading telescopic object. The orbit is very unusual, with the smallest perihelion distance of any proven short period comet (0.13 AU), which is decreasing further with time, a high eccentricity (0.96) and a high inclination (60°). Studies by Sekanina suggest it has only one active area, which is situated close to the rotation pole and becomes active close to perihelion. The comet may be the parent of the Quadrantid meteor shower.
Although 8P/Tuttle doesn’t reach perihelion until 2008, it is likely to be one of the brighter objects for visual observers in 2007. It could be a binocular or even naked eye object at the close of 2007 as it makes a close pass of the Earth at 0.25 AU at the beginning of the New Year.
The other periodic and parabolic comets that are at perihelion during 2006 are unlikely to become brighter than 13th magnitude or are poorly placed. Ephemerides for these can be found on the CBAT WWW pages. Three were only seen once and have not been seen since their discovery, whilst D/Kohoutek has not been seen for two returns, and for all four the likely perihelion dates and magnitudes are extremely uncertain.
Looking ahead to 2008, the brightest comets are 6P/d’Arrest (10th mag), 8P/Tuttle and 85P/Boethin (8th mag) and there may be more than 40 fainter ones.
Comet |
T |
q |
P |
N |
H1 |
K1 |
Peak mag |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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99P/Kowal |
Jan 15.7 |
4.72 |
15.1 |
2 |
4.5 |
15.0 |
17 |
|
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P/LONEOS (2001 WF2) |
Feb 6.2 |
0.98 |
5.02 |
1 |
18.0 |
10.0 |
15 |
|
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P/Petriew (2001 Q2) |
Feb 24.6 |
0.94 |
5.47 |
1 |
11.0 |
10.0 |
12 |
|
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LONEOS (2005 EL173) |
Mar 6.1 |
3.90 |
|
|
11.5 |
5.0 |
17 |
|
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106P/Schuster |
Apr 2.2 |
1.56 |
7.31 |
3 |
10.0 |
15.0 |
15 |
|
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96P/Machholz |
Apr 4.6 |
0.12 |
5.24 |
4 |
13.0 |
12.0 |
2 |
|
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2P/Encke |
Apr 19.3 |
0.34 |
3.30 |
59 |
10.5 |
15.0 |
3 |
|
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17P/Holmes |
May 4.5 |
2.05 |
6.88 |
9 |
10.0 |
15.0 |
17 |
|
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P/LONEOS-Tucker (1998 QP54) |
May 12.2 |
1.88 |
8.60 |
1 |
9.7 |
15.0 |
16 |
|
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135P/Shoemaker-Levy |
May 31.0 |
2.71 |
7.48 |
2 |
6.5 |
20.0 |
16 |
|
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128P/Shoemaker-Holt (A) |
Jun 13.6 |
3.07 |
9.59 |
2 |
4.6 |
15.0 |
14 |
|
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128P/Shoemaker-Holt (B) |
Jun 13.7 |
3.07 |
9.59 |
1 |
4.6 |
15.0 |
? |
|
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156P/Russell-LINEAR |
Jun 17.4 |
1.59 |
6.83 |
3 |
13.0 |
15.0 |
18 |
|
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133P/(7968) Elst-Pizarro |
Jun 29.4 |
2.64 |
5.61 |
4 |
12.0 |
10.0 |
17 |
|
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87P/Bus |
Jul 7.2 |
2.17 |
6.51 |
4 |
10.0 |
15.0 |
16 |
|
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P/Mueller (1998 U2) |
Jul 7.9 |
2.03 |
8.73 |
1 |
11.0 |
15.0 |
17 |
|
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108P/Ciffreo |
Jul 18.0 |
1.72 |
7.26 |
3 |
9.2 |
15.0 |
15 |
|
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P/NEAT (2002 O5) |
Jul 26.3 |
1.17 |
4.98 |
1 |
19.0 |
10.0 |
16 |
|
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125P/Spacewatch |
Aug 10.7 |
1.52 |
5.53 |
3 |
15.5 |
10.0 |
18 |
|
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P/Hoenig (2003 R5) |
Sep 11.3 |
0.05 |
3.99 |
2 |
12.5 |
5.0 |
6? |
|
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D/Schorr (1918 W1) |
Sep 26.4 |
2.85 |
8.51 |
1 |
10.0 |
15.0 |
18 |
|
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70P/Kojima |
Oct 5.9 |
2.01 |
7.06 |
5 |
11.0 |
15.0 |
17 |
|
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136P/Mueller |
Oct 22.2 |
2.96 |
8.57 |
2 |
11.0 |
10.0 |
17 |
|
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50P/Arend |
Nov 1.2 |
1.92 |
8.26 |
7 |
9.5 |
15.0 |
14 |
|
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75D/Kohoutek |
Nov 3.3 |
1.80 |
6.70 |
3 |
10.5 |
10.0 |
13? |
|
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D/Blanpain (1819 W1) |
Nov 3.4 |
0.94 |
5.16 |
1 |
10.5 |
10.0 |
? |
|
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P/Jedicke (1995 A1) |
Dec 4.1 |
4.09 |
14.35 |
1 |
9.5 |
10.0 |
18 |
|
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D/Denning (1894 F1) |
Dec 4.3 |
1.63 |
9.69 |
1 |
10.5 |
15.0 |
14? |
|
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P/Shoemaker-Levy (1999 V1) |
Dec 12.9 |
1.46 |
16.41 |
1 |
10.5 |
10.0 |
13 |
|
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P/LINEAR-Mueller (1998 S1) |
Dec 16.1 |
2.55 |
9.13 |
1 |
5.6 |
15.0 |
13 |
|
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93P/Lovas |
Dec 17.3 |
1.70 |
9.20 |
3 |
10.1 |
10.7 |
12 |
|
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The date of perihelion (T), perihelion distance (q), period (P), the number of previously observed returns (N), the magnitude parameters H1 and K1 and the brightest magnitude are given for each comet. The date of return of D/Schorr and D/Denning must be regarded as highly uncertain, whilst 75D/Kohoutek was missed at the last two returns. If there is an identity between D/Blanpain and 2003 WY25 (P/Catalina) it will not return in 2006.
Note: m1 = H1 + 5.0 * log(d) + K1 * log(r)
References and sources
Belyaev, N. A., Kresak, L., Pittich, E. M. and Pushkarev, A. N., Catalogue of short Period Comets, Bratislava (1986).
Hoenig, S. F., Identification of a new short-period comet near the Sun, A&A (in press).
Kozlov, E. A., Medvedev, Y. D., Pittichova, J., and Pittich, E. M. Catalogue of short Period Comets, 2nd edition, (http://astro.savba.sk/cat/) (2003).
Kronk, G. W., Cometographia, Cambridge University Press, (1999, 2004) and http://www.cometography.com.
Marsden, B. G. Catalogue of Cometary Orbits, 15th edition, IAU CBAT, (2003).
Minor Planet Circulars
Nakano Notes at http://www.oaa.gr.jp/~oaacs/nk/
Nakano, S. and Green D. W. E., Eds, International Comet Quarterly 2005 Comet Handbook, (2004).
Shanklin, J. D., Observing Guide to Comets, 2nd edition (2002)
Jonathan Shanklin